Each of these economic engines was started by a relatively small ergonomic advance that made the underlying (and preexisting) technologies easy to access. In other words, ease-of-use equals use. The remaining obstacle to the explosion of the mobile Internet is to acknowledge that the existing telephone keypad is no longer appropriate as a telephone interface and to replace it with a new interface that is.

Use = Industry Growth
Last year, analysts reported astronomical numbers for the growth of the mobile Internet. Since then people have tried using the mobile Internet, and... the new estimates aren't so astronomical. This shouldn't surprise anyone. Industry forecasts made prior to the interface advance that allows the product to change the world will clearly be disappointing, because surveys are based on user experience, and the user experience of the mobile Internet is, well, bad.

To what degree is the existing telephone keypad stifling use of the mobile Internet? Here's a simple thought experiment. Imagine how often you would use the regular Internet if your desktop keyboard was taken away and replaced with a telephone keypad. Imagine writing and addressing an e-mail. What would it be like to browse the Internet? Amplify your response by a few hundred million people and the damage done by an inappropriate interface quickly becomes apparent.

The Messaging Message
Last month there were over 23 billion (yes, billion) SMS messages sent worldwide, but in the U.S. we still need to explain what SMS means. (Short Message Service is like e-mail over a mobile phone.) Certainly, part of the problem is that the U.S. is only now completing gateways to allow these messages to flow between wireless service providers, a feature Europe has enjoyed for years.

Another theory is that Americans don't like to communicate by mobile Internet because we all have real computers at home. But this theory is refuted by the success of RIM's extremely addictive (and expensive) BlackBerry, a product that brings e-mail to your pocket. If Americans don't like to communicate by mobile Internet, why is the BlackBerry so successful? Three reasons: 1) interface, 2) interface, 3) interface.

Is That a Computer in Your Pocket?
Slightly beyond the issue of the mobile Internet lies the topic of pervasive computing. It's still an open question whether telephones will become Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) or whether PDAs will become telephones. But it's clear that the value of integrating communication and data is tremendous. Perhaps the two are a yin and yang of one another.

Communication without something to discuss has as little value as information that cannot be shared. Business has already seen the tremendous value in Customer Relations Management (CRM) and is exploring how this data can be shared wirelessly.

Ironically, most telephones already have PDA functionality ­ calculators, calendars, and address books. However, they remain largely unused because the interface is so poor. While it may be a mistake to believe that a single mobile device could possibly meet everyone's needs, we can learn from the success of the desktop computer paradigm: provide a fundamental tool. In the mobile environment this tool would allow people to send and receive e-mails (like BlackBerry), store and retrieve personal information (like a PDA), write SMS messages, browse the Web, perform m-commerce, and even phone a friend.

Economics
The makers of mobile telephones are struggling in a commodity market, innovating by changing the colors of the case, while the phone is packed with features that can't really be used because the basic interface hasn't changed in 50 years. Today's mobile phones have many useful capabilities, but getting access to them is so difficult they may as well not be there ­ like a Swiss Army knife made without those helpful little fingernail notches. Imagine the shift in demand if the mobile phone interface was designed to give consumers access to the great tools inside.

Service providers are faced with massive debt from building out 3G networks and are counting on data services and messaging for increasing revenues in the future. These plans are more likely to succeed if the phones are designed to provide data services and messaging.

Naked Truth
Desktop functionality is migrating to the pocket, and whether the issue is messaging, Web browsing, m-commerce, CRM, personal data storage, or time management ­ a fancy telephone dial from the '50s is the wrong tool for the task. The telephone is about to battle the handheld computer to see who rules the pockets of the world. At stake is who will be the winners and losers of the world's next wave of economic growth.

So remember, you heard it here first: the 12-button interface has no clothes.

SIDEBAR:
Introducing the Alternative
The amazing telecommunications advances of the past decade have rendered the 12-button keypad more of an impediment than an interface. To telecommunications giants ­ wireless carriers expecting data revenues to replace dwindling voice revenue, and handset makers struggling to provide valuable innovation in a commodity market ­ the issue is critical.

The 12-button interface is an archaic, frustrating, and slow way to perform what are essentially computer tasks: writing text, browsing the mobile Web, CRM, even basic tasks like entering names into the address book. The only reason mobile phones still have a 50-year old interface is the absence of a worthy alternative.

The Fastap keypad is a computer-level interface that fits in the same space as the old style keypad. By providing intuitive one-touch operation, Fastap technology converts the telephone into a true data device.

The way it works is simple. Place your finger, or even thumb, over the desired number, letter, or punctuation mark... and press it. Keys work in combination, so even a large thumb has enough space to use the device comfortably.

Fastap phones are a new class of device that make advanced phone applications fast, easy, and fun to use. Fastap GSM and CDMA phones will be available in the first quarter of 2003.