Welcome!

Mobile IoT Authors: Elizabeth White, Jason Bloomberg, James Carlini, Mauro Carniel, Rostyslav Demush

News Feed Item

The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013-2018

NEW YORK, Aug. 19, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018

http://www.reportlinker.com/p02115122/The-Latin-America-telecoms-market-trends-and-forecasts-2013–2018.html

<p>Competition looks set to intensify and will stimulate significant dynamism in the Latin America telecoms market thus driving service revenue to USD179 billion by 2018. This report provides our view of the market&apos;s development and forecasts for the next 5 years, and identifies major growth opportunities for telecoms operators.</p>

About this report

This report provides:

-a 5-year forecast of more than 60 mobile and fixed KPIs for the region as a whole and for key countries
-an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
-an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
-a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
-Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led Research programmes and Consulting division, as well as external interviews.
-In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).
-For the complete data set and our data series definitions, see the accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/LATAM-2014.

Contents

 

8.Executive summary
9.Competition will stimulate dynamism in all countries, driving telecoms service revenue to USD179 billion in Latin America by 2018
10.Handset data will generate about 60% of revenue growth during 2013–2018 and will become the second-largest source after mobile voice by 2018
11.We forecast fixed and mobile revenue growth in all countries, but it will be weakest in Chile and Mexico where levels of competition are high
12.Forecast revision: we have revised up our revenue forecast to reflect stronger than expected smartphone take-up and rising Internet demand
13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market [1]
14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market [2]
15.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
16.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
17.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
18.Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which account for about 90% of LATAM's total telecoms service revenue
19.Market context: The two largest countries by population – Brazil and Mexico – generated 56% of the region's telecoms retail revenue in 2013
20.Fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband growth will remain solid whereas mobile will slowdown, except for mobile M2M
21.Mobile penetration: Handset penetration will slow down as markets mature
22.Mobile connections: 3G will become the dominant technology in 2015 and LTE will account for 14% of mobile connections in 2018
23.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will account for about 60% of handsets in most countries by 2018 as operators stimulate demand
24.Mobile ARPU: Chile and Mexico will have the highest ARPU decline because of increased competition
25.Fixed services: The potential for fixed broadband growth is high in LATAM because the service is underpenetrated and operators are investing
26.Fixed broadband: Argentina has the highest household penetration rate, but Brazil's will significantly increase during the next 5 years
27.Revenue and ARPU: Fixed broadband and mobile ARPU will be more resilient than fixed voice, which will increasingly become a commodity
28.Service revenue: The revenue mix by country will not change dramatically during 2013–2018
29.Revenue mix: Mobile services will grow more than fixed in all countries, increasing mobile's share of retail revenue to 60% in the region in 2018
30.Individual country forecasts
31.Argentina: Service revenue will reach ARS77 billion in 2018, of which mobile services will generate 71%, the highest ratio in LATAM
32.Argentina: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
33.Argentina – mobile: ARPU will continue to grow driven by an increase in smartphones, and a high inflation rate
34.Argentina – fixed: The market looks resilient as broadband, and pay-TV adoption is strong and acts as a retention tool for voice
35.Brazil: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive service revenue to BRL131 billion by 2018
36.Brazil: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
37.Brazil – mobile: Strong smartphone growth will improve the handset mix and will help to ease pressure on ARPU
38.Brazil – fixed: Broadband penetration is low, but competition is stimulating demand and infrastructure is improving
39.Chile: Service revenue will decline 4% in 2014 because of MTR cuts, but retail revenue will continue to grow albeit at a slow rate
40.Chile: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
41.Chile – mobile: ARPU will be under pressure because of MTR cuts between 2014 and 2019 and increased numbers of MVNOs
42.Chile – fixed: We forecast further fixed-to-mobile voice substitution whereas the fixed broadband market will have solid growth
43.Colombia: Service revenue will reach COP21 trillion in 2018, but mobile voice services will continue to be predominant
44.Colombia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
45.Colombia – mobile: ARPU will peak in 2014, but the MTR cuts and MVNO competition will drive further price pressure thereafter
46.Colombia – fixed: The broadband market will continue to grow as operators continue to investing to meet untapped Internet demand
47.Mexico: Service revenue will grow slowly because new regulation will put significant pressure on mobile voice
48.Mexico: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

 

List of figures

 

Figure 1:   Summary of report coverage
Figure 2:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 3:   Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2013–2018
Figure 4:   CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013–2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Latin America
Figure 5:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Latin America, 2013 and 2018
Figure 6a–b: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, Latin America
Figure 7:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, Latin America
Figure 8:   Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, 2018
Figure 9:   Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2013
Figure 10:   Penetration rate by service type, Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 11:   Connections by service type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2013–2018
Figure 12:   Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 13:   Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 14:   Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2013 and 2018
Figure 15:   Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 16:   Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 17:   Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 18:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2009–2018
Figure 19:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2013–2018
Figure 20:   Service revenue by country, Latin America, 2013
Figure 21:   Service revenue by country, Latin America, 2018
Figure 22:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Latin America, 2013 and 2018
Figure 23:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2009–2018
Figure 24:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2013–2018
Figure 25:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2013–2018
Figure 26:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 27:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina, 2009–2018
Figure 28:   ARPU rates by type, Argentina, 2009–2018
Figure 29:   Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2009–2018
Figure 30:   Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Argentina, 2009–2018
Figure 31:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2009–2018
Figure 32:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2013–2018
Figure 33:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2013–2018
Figure 34:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 35:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2009–2018
Figure 36:   ARPU rates by type, Brazil, 2009–2018
Figure 37:   Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2009–2018
Figure 38:   Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Brazil, 2009–2018
Figure 39:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2009–2018
Figure 40:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2013–2018
Figure 41:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2013–2018
Figure 42:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 43:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2009–2018
Figure 44:   ARPU rates by type, Chile, 2009–2018
Figure 45:   Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2009–2018
Figure 46:   Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Chile, 2009–2018
Figure 47:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2009–2018
Figure 48:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2013–2018
Figure 49:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2013–2018
Figure 50:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 51:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2009–2018
Figure 52:   ARPU rates by type, Colombia, 2009–2018
Figure 53:   Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2009–2018
Figure 54:   Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Colombia, 2009–2018
Figure 55:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2009–2018
Figure 56:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2013–2018
Figure 57:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2013–2018
Figure 58:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 59:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2009–2018
Figure 60:   ARPU rates by type, Mexico, 2009–2018
Figure 61:   Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2009–2018
Figure 62:   Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Mexico, 2009–2018
Figure 63:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2009–2018
Figure 64:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2013–2018
Figure 65:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2013–2018
Figure 66:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 67:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2009–2018
Figure 68:   ARPU rates by type, Peru, 2009–2018
Figure 69:   Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2009–2018
Figure 70:   Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Peru, 2009–2018
Figure 71:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Venezuela, 2009–2018
Figure 72:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Venezuela, 2013–2018
Figure 73:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Venezuela, 2013–2018
Figure 74:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
Figure 75:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Venezuela, 2009–2018
Figure 76:   ARPU rates by type, Venezuela, 2009–2018
Figure 77:   Fixed penetration rates by service type, Venezuela, 2009–2018
Figure 78:   Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Venezuela, 2009–2018

 


Geographical coverage

 

Forecast data is provided for the following individual countries, as well as for the region as a whole:

 

Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela

 

Data series in the Excel annex

 

The following data is provided for each individual country listed in under 'Geographical coverage' and for the region as a whole. Figures are provided in USD and local currency units at constant and current exchange rates.

 

Mobile Connections total (including M2M)
Mobile Connections total (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections prepaid share (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration – prepaid (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections penetration – contract (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 2G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 3G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections 4G (excluding M2M)
Mobile Connections handset
Mobile Connections handset penetration
Mobile Connections handset – prepaid
Mobile Connections handset – contract
Mobile Connections handset – prepaid share
Mobile Connections handset – 2G
Mobile Connections handset – 3G
Mobile Connections handset – 4G
Mobile Connections handset – smartphone
Mobile Connections handset – basic
Mobile Connections broadband
Mobile Connections broadband penetration
Mobile Connections broadband – 2G
Mobile Connections broadband – 3G
Mobile Connections broadband – 4G
Mobile Connections M2M
Mobile Connections M2M penetration
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Service revenue prepaid
Mobile Service revenue contract
Mobile Service revenue prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue data
Mobile Service revenue data as % of service revenue
Mobile Service revenue handset
Mobile Service revenue handset – prepaid
Mobile Service revenue handset – contract
Mobile Service revenue handset – prepaid share
Mobile Service revenue handset – voice
Mobile Service revenue handset – SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Service revenue handset – data
Mobile Service revenue broadband
Mobile Service revenue M2M
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Mobile Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Mobile Retail revenue handset
Mobile Retail revenue handset – voice
Mobile Retail revenue handset – SMS/MMS messaging
Mobile Retail revenue handset – data
Mobile Retail revenue broadband
Mobile Retail revenue M2M
Mobile ARPU total telecoms
Mobile ARPU total telecoms – prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms – contract
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M)
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) – prepaid
Mobile ARPU total telecoms (excluding M2M) – contract
Mobile ARPU handset
Mobile ARPU handset – prepaid
Mobile ARPU handset – contract
Mobile ARPU handset – voice
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Mobile Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Fixed Connections voice
Fixed Connections voice – narrowband
Fixed Connections voice – VoBB
Fixed Connections broadband
Fixed Connections DSL
Fixed Connections FTTH/B
Fixed Connections cable modem
Fixed Connections BFWA
Fixed Connections other fixed broadband
Fixed Connections IPTV
Fixed Connections dial-up Internet
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Fixed Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Fixed Retail revenue voice
Fixed Retail revenue dial-up Internet
Fixed Retail revenue broadband
Fixed Retail revenue DSL
Fixed Retail revenue FTTH/B
Fixed Retail revenue cable modem
Fixed Retail revenue BFWA
Fixed Retail revenue other fixed broadband retail revenue
Fixed Retail revenue IPTV
Fixed Retail revenue business network services
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing minutes
Fixed Voice traffic outgoing MoU per active connection
Total market Connections voice
Total market Connections broadband
Total market Service revenue total telecoms
Total market Service revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Service revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms as percentage of GDP
Total market Retail revenue total telecoms per head of population per month
Total market Retail revenue voice
Total market Retail revenue non-voice
Total market Voice traffic outgoing minutes




To order this report: The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2018
http://www.reportlinker.com/p02115122/The-Latin-America-telecoms-market-trends-and-forecasts-2013–2018.html



__________________________
Contact Clare: [email protected]
US: (339)-368-6001
Intl: +1 339-368-6001

SOURCE Reportlinker

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

@ThingsExpo Stories
Leading companies, from the Global Fortune 500 to the smallest companies, are adopting hybrid cloud as the path to business advantage. Hybrid cloud depends on cloud services and on-premises infrastructure working in unison. Successful implementations require new levels of data mobility, enabled by an automated and seamless flow across on-premises and cloud resources. In his general session at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Tevis, an IBM Storage Software Technical Strategist and Customer Solution Architec...
Nordstrom is transforming the way that they do business and the cloud is the key to enabling speed and hyper personalized customer experiences. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Ken Schow, VP of Engineering at Nordstrom, discussed some of the key learnings and common pitfalls of large enterprises moving to the cloud. This includes strategies around choosing a cloud provider(s), architecture, and lessons learned. In addition, he covered some of the best practices for structured team migration an...
Product connectivity goes hand and hand these days with increased use of personal data. New IoT devices are becoming more personalized than ever before. In his session at 22nd Cloud Expo | DXWorld Expo, Nicolas Fierro, CEO of MIMIR Blockchain Solutions, will discuss how in order to protect your data and privacy, IoT applications need to embrace Blockchain technology for a new level of product security never before seen - or needed.
Imagine if you will, a retail floor so densely packed with sensors that they can pick up the movements of insects scurrying across a store aisle. Or a component of a piece of factory equipment so well-instrumented that its digital twin provides resolution down to the micrometer.
In his keynote at 18th Cloud Expo, Andrew Keys, Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise, provided an overview of the evolution of the Internet and the Database and the future of their combination – the Blockchain. Andrew Keys is Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise. He comes to ConsenSys Enterprise with capital markets, technology and entrepreneurial experience. Previously, he worked for UBS investment bank in equities analysis. Later, he was responsible for the creation and distribution of life settle...
BnkToTheFuture.com is the largest online investment platform for investing in FinTech, Bitcoin and Blockchain companies. We believe the future of finance looks very different from the past and we aim to invest and provide trading opportunities for qualifying investors that want to build a portfolio in the sector in compliance with international financial regulations.
No hype cycles or predictions of a gazillion things here. IoT is here. You get it. You know your business and have great ideas for a business transformation strategy. What comes next? Time to make it happen. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Jay Mason, an Associate Partner of Analytics, IoT & Cybersecurity at M&S Consulting, presented a step-by-step plan to develop your technology implementation strategy. He also discussed the evaluation of communication standards and IoT messaging protocols, data...
Coca-Cola’s Google powered digital signage system lays the groundwork for a more valuable connection between Coke and its customers. Digital signs pair software with high-resolution displays so that a message can be changed instantly based on what the operator wants to communicate or sell. In their Day 3 Keynote at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Chambers, Global Group Director, Digital Innovation, Coca-Cola, and Vidya Nagarajan, a Senior Product Manager at Google, discussed how from store operations and ...
In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Raju Shreewastava, founder of Big Data Trunk, provided a fun and simple way to introduce Machine Leaning to anyone and everyone. He solved a machine learning problem and demonstrated an easy way to be able to do machine learning without even coding. Raju Shreewastava is the founder of Big Data Trunk (www.BigDataTrunk.com), a Big Data Training and consulting firm with offices in the United States. He previously led the data warehouse/business intelligence and B...
"IBM is really all in on blockchain. We take a look at sort of the history of blockchain ledger technologies. It started out with bitcoin, Ethereum, and IBM evaluated these particular blockchain technologies and found they were anonymous and permissionless and that many companies were looking for permissioned blockchain," stated René Bostic, Technical VP of the IBM Cloud Unit in North America, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Conventi...
A strange thing is happening along the way to the Internet of Things, namely far too many devices to work with and manage. It has become clear that we'll need much higher efficiency user experiences that can allow us to more easily and scalably work with the thousands of devices that will soon be in each of our lives. Enter the conversational interface revolution, combining bots we can literally talk with, gesture to, and even direct with our thoughts, with embedded artificial intelligence, whic...
When shopping for a new data processing platform for IoT solutions, many development teams want to be able to test-drive options before making a choice. Yet when evaluating an IoT solution, it’s simply not feasible to do so at scale with physical devices. Building a sensor simulator is the next best choice; however, generating a realistic simulation at very high TPS with ease of configurability is a formidable challenge. When dealing with multiple application or transport protocols, you would be...
Smart cities have the potential to change our lives at so many levels for citizens: less pollution, reduced parking obstacles, better health, education and more energy savings. Real-time data streaming and the Internet of Things (IoT) possess the power to turn this vision into a reality. However, most organizations today are building their data infrastructure to focus solely on addressing immediate business needs vs. a platform capable of quickly adapting emerging technologies to address future ...
We are given a desktop platform with Java 8 or Java 9 installed and seek to find a way to deploy high-performance Java applications that use Java 3D and/or Jogl without having to run an installer. We are subject to the constraint that the applications be signed and deployed so that they can be run in a trusted environment (i.e., outside of the sandbox). Further, we seek to do this in a way that does not depend on bundling a JRE with our applications, as this makes downloads and installations rat...
Widespread fragmentation is stalling the growth of the IIoT and making it difficult for partners to work together. The number of software platforms, apps, hardware and connectivity standards is creating paralysis among businesses that are afraid of being locked into a solution. EdgeX Foundry is unifying the community around a common IoT edge framework and an ecosystem of interoperable components.
DX World EXPO, LLC, a Lighthouse Point, Florida-based startup trade show producer and the creator of "DXWorldEXPO® - Digital Transformation Conference & Expo" has announced its executive management team. The team is headed by Levent Selamoglu, who has been named CEO. "Now is the time for a truly global DX event, to bring together the leading minds from the technology world in a conversation about Digital Transformation," he said in making the announcement.
In this strange new world where more and more power is drawn from business technology, companies are effectively straddling two paths on the road to innovation and transformation into digital enterprises. The first path is the heritage trail – with “legacy” technology forming the background. Here, extant technologies are transformed by core IT teams to provide more API-driven approaches. Legacy systems can restrict companies that are transitioning into digital enterprises. To truly become a lead...
Digital Transformation (DX) is not a "one-size-fits all" strategy. Each organization needs to develop its own unique, long-term DX plan. It must do so by realizing that we now live in a data-driven age, and that technologies such as Cloud Computing, Big Data, the IoT, Cognitive Computing, and Blockchain are only tools. In her general session at 21st Cloud Expo, Rebecca Wanta explained how the strategy must focus on DX and include a commitment from top management to create great IT jobs, monitor ...
"Cloud Academy is an enterprise training platform for the cloud, specifically public clouds. We offer guided learning experiences on AWS, Azure, Google Cloud and all the surrounding methodologies and technologies that you need to know and your teams need to know in order to leverage the full benefits of the cloud," explained Alex Brower, VP of Marketing at Cloud Academy, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clar...
The IoT Will Grow: In what might be the most obvious prediction of the decade, the IoT will continue to expand next year, with more and more devices coming online every single day. What isn’t so obvious about this prediction: where that growth will occur. The retail, healthcare, and industrial/supply chain industries will likely see the greatest growth. Forrester Research has predicted the IoT will become “the backbone” of customer value as it continues to grow. It is no surprise that retail is ...