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Research and Markets: 1Q10 Philippines Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: The Philippines will have 99.2 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of PLDT Rising to 58.6%

Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4848d4/1q10_philippines_m) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q10 Philippines Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: The Philippines will have 99.2 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of PLDT Rising to 58.6%" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on the Philippines provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Philippines wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for the Philippines include: The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT), Globe Telecom, Inc., and Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary:

Strong wireless subscriber growth continues at PLDT and Digitel +9.4% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

ARPU growth levels continue to register in negative territory -8.9% industry average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009 Negative EBITDA growth at PLDT and Globe Telecom in the latest quarter -7.3% industry average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMRs Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in the Philippines will rise to 99.2 million in 2014

  • An increasing number of mobile subscribers in the Philippines are using prepaid SIM cards, and we forecast that the number of total mobile subscriber accounts in the country will increase from 72.8 million in 2009 to 99.2 million in 2014.
  • The largest mobile operator in the country will continue to be PLDT. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 40 million in 2009 to 58.1 million in 2014.
  • We also estimate that Globe Telecom will have 27.8 million subscribers and Digitel will have 13.2 million subscribers by the end of 2014.

PLDT's subscriber market share will be rising over the next five years

  • Our model is predicting that PLDT's subscriber market share will increase from 55% in 2009 to 58.6% in 2014.
  • Also, we expect that Digitel's share of total subscribers will rise from 10% in 2009 to 13.4% in 2014.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that Globe Telecom's share will decline to approximately 28% in 2014.

ARPUs will continue to decline slightly from 2010 to 2014

  • We think that ARPU levels in the Philippines will continue to fall in the Philippines, partly because more people own multiple subscriber accounts.
  • Our model forecasts that PLDT's monthly ARPU will fall from about PHP 200 in 2009 to PHP 180 in 2014.
  • Also, we expect that Globe Telecom's monthly ARPU will fall from approximately PHP 180 to PHP 165 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

EBITDA margins will remain high in the Philippines's wireless market over the next five years

  • Profitability, measured by EBITDA margins, is very high in the Philippines's wireless market compared to many other wireless markets around the world.
  • We forecast that EBITDA margins at PLDT and Globe Telecom will be approximately 61.3% and 58.5% respectively in 2014.

Key Topics Covered:

Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel) (estimates only) (For Digitel, only the subscriber data is available.)

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014F. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

Companies Mentioned:

  • The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT)
  • Globe Telecom, Inc.
  • Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel)

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4848d4/1q10_philippines_m

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